Posted by The Hill-Man on November 16, 2009
After discussing it ALL MORNING, I came across some information that makes me think I owe “The General” an apology. We all know that applying statistics to real life can give us great insight on making decisions and that’s what the nerds over at AdvancedNFLstats.com have done. Turns out that statistically Belichick made the right call!
You can read it for yourself, but summing up: going for it on 4th down is successful 60% of the time. Odds that Brady and Co. would have converted are much better than the odds that you punt to the Colts and they don’t score (47%). I know it’s tough to take because there has to be someone to blame for last night, but the stats don’t lie. Here’s a few others I came across while booking my plane tickets to Indianapolis for the AFC Championship game:
% odds that a cameraman getting too close to Bill Belichick after a devastating loss to the most annoying QB in the NFL will get knocked over by his security: 100%. Check the video:
% odds that the answer to today’s press conference question about whether he now wishes he had punted will be “no”: 100%
% odds that Eric Mangini was jumping for joy when the Colts scored that touchdown last night: 100%
% odds that Lawrence Maroney could gain a third hand in a cloning experiment gone awry and still not be able to hold on to the ball: 100%
% odds that Jet Coach Rex Ryan missed the call by Belichick to go for it last night because he was in the kitchen grabbing a snack: 100%
% odds that our beloved Patriots will bounce back and beat the Colts in the AFC championship: Call me a homer, but I’m still going with 100%!
The stat is surprising, given that “conventional wisdom” all the way back when we were kids said that when you’re deep in your own territory you punt on 4th down even if it’s only 2 yards. But as you said, stats don’t lie. If they make it 60% of the time, then Coach made a good call.
In looking at the video, it’s hard to even understand how they could have ruled it was short. The yellow line marking the 1st down was clearly between the receiver’s legs, which means he came down on the far side of the 1st down. The announcer instantly declared it was short, like he was watching some other game, and acted like it was beyond question even though it was clearly a 1st down. Something weird going on there. Maybe just another case of the Hatriots helping the other team any way they can.
Bottom line, if you’re in a position where one bad call like that can cost you the game, then you don’t deserve to win it. The Pats had the Colts locked up, totally stunned them in their own stadium, and they let it slip away. All this chatter over the call, the time out, the ref’s spotting the ball, the announcer, it doesn’t take away from the fact that the Colts showed amazing heart in that game. They hung in there, never gave up, fought for every yard and took the game away from the Pats. It’s that simple. They went all Rocky Balboa on our boys. Good for them. They earned it. They deserve it.
Comment by Michael the Other Massachusetts Conservative — November 16, 2009 @ 3:41 pm
“…after a devastating loss to the most annoying QB in the NFL…”
How in the world did Belichick lose to Tom Brady? That comment doesn’t even make sense…
Comment by Tom Gq I Do So Love Myself Brady — November 16, 2009 @ 4:06 pm
TO MICHAEL (THE OTHER GUTLESS CONSERVATIVE):
They went all Rocky Balboa on our boys. Good for them. They earned it. They deserve it.
STICK TO WHATEVER THE HELL IT IS THAT YOU KNOW, YOU MORON. “THEY DESERVE IT”, WHAT A LOAD OF CRAP!!! THE PATRIOTS BLEW A 31-14 LEAD, AND THEIR DEFENSE LET INDY OFF THE HOOK, AND DID NOT PUT THE FINAL NAIL IN THE COFFIN WHEN THEY HAD THE CHANCE. THE BONEHEADED FUMBLE BY MARONEY IN THE ENDZONE DID NOT HELP EITHER. EVERYONE SEEMS TO BE AFRAID TO SAY THAT THE DEFENSE CHOCKED WHEN THEY WERE NEEDED THE MOST. LOOK AT THE PAT’S RECORD WHTN BRADY AND MOSS HAVE THE TYPE OF NIGHT THAT THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
LOOK AT HOW OFTEN THE PATRIOTS WIN WHEN THEY PUT UP 31 POINTS. LAST NIGHT’S GAME WAS A CARBON COPY OF THE DENVER GAME, AND THE STUPID “KUDOS” THROWN INDY’S WAY WILL BE SMALL CONSOLATION WHEN THE PATS HAVE TO GO TO INDY FOR A PLAYOFF GAME, RATHER THAN THE COLTS COMING HERE IN JANUARY WITH THE COLD, AND THE SNOW FALLING. AGAIN, STICK TO YOUR ARIAN NATION MEETINGS, AND YOUR RIGHT WING EXTREMISM.
Comment by Matt — November 16, 2009 @ 7:29 pm
I would like to know what the rest of the country has to say about the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. You might say, “Don, the Jaguars? We want to talk about the arrogant decision that our coach made!”
Well…allow me to present THIS scenario: Your team is losing, and rather than walking into the end zone, you take a knee at the 1-yard line. MADNESS, you say? Ahhh, but NFL fans are tipping their collective cap to one Mr. Maurice Jones-Drew, who did exactly that in Sunday’s game against the Jets.
With 1:48 to play in the game, and Jacksonville LOSING 22-21, the Jaguars were on the Jets’ 10-yard line. MJD takes a handoff up the middle, and has a giant hole to walk into the end zone (sources say the Jets were TRYING to let Jones-Drew score, but I won’t get started on THAT strategy right now). Rather than score a touchdown, Jones-Drew takes a knee on the 1-yard line. So let me get THIS straight — your team is LOSING, and rather than scoring a touchdown, you decide to take a knee and RUN THE CLOCK down for a POTENTIAL game winning field goal (my guess is that the percentage of successfully completing a field goal is less than 100%).
What kind of message does THAT send to the Jacksonville defense? Rather than take the LEAD, and kickoff (not punt, mind you) to have MARK SANCHEZ try and beat you…you TAKE A KNEE.
By the way, Brian Westbrook did the same thing a few years ago, and both of these individuals are considered “smart”. Hey, I’m not disagreeing with what they did…which is why I am not criticizing Coach Belichick’s gamble. As far as I’m concerned, you can’t credit The Eagles and Jaguars and at the same time shred the Patriots (unless, of course, you are already a Patriot hater).
If I had more time, I could talk about taking an intentional safety…
Comment by Don Frye — November 17, 2009 @ 7:11 am
How come no one is talking about the ATROCIOUS “pass interference” that basically gave Indy their second to last touchdown, when the Indy receiver JUMPED INTO the NE DB…even Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth said it was bogus…
Comment by Drew — November 17, 2009 @ 12:56 pm
DON, I TOTALLY AGREE WITH YOU!! FINALLY SOMEONE SMART ,UNLIKE HILLMAN’S IDIOTIC SHUT-INS LIKE ERIC THAT CALL THE SHOW ABOUT 15 TIMES EVERY DAY, AND RUN THEIR MOUTHS ABOUT NOTHING. ALL OF THESE BEAUTIFULLY MISINFORMED “EDUCATED” FANS, ARE SE THE SAME ONES THAT WOULD ACT LIKE THE PATS LOST THE GAME IF BELICHICK HAD PUT THE GAME INTHE DEFENSE’S HANDS AND THE HUN ON AND WON. ALL YOU WOULD BE HEARIN IS…”THE WON BUT…”…”THEY MADE PLAYS WHEN THE HAD TO, BUT THE WON’T BEAT THE JETS UNLESS THEY PLAY BETTER.”,ETC. THE SAME PEOPLE THAT ARE NOW PUTTING THE PATS DEFENSE ON PAR WITH THE ‘85 BEARS, ARE THE SAME ONES THAT WERE CRITICIZING THE DEFENSE FOR ALL THE PLAYS THAT THEY DIDN’T MAKE, OR PLAYS THAT IN THEIR EYES THEY “BARELY MADE”.
Comment by Matt — November 17, 2009 @ 1:29 pm
I agree with Don and Drew, I was wondering why no one brought up that bogus pass interference on Butler cuz he clearly couldn’t see the receiver and more importantly, was going for the ball!
I don’t understand these people bashin BB. First of all, there were plenty of other reasons why the Pats lost: Maroney fumble, 1st drive Watson drops a perfectly good pass, overall bad defense (seems like the first game our defense, not our offense, lost). But if we must focus on the 4th and 2 then yes, he should have gone for it. I don’t say this after the fact, I said this during the game. Before BB clearly made the choice, I was screaming at the TV for him to go for it. Manning was ripping the Defense a new A-Hole. They were either figured out, or dead tired. He went 80 yards in like a minute and 40 or something.
What if they went for it and it was a success? Would all these dissenters be saying “well I don’t accept the victory cuz he shouldn’t have gone for it”. Hell no! The idea is to win against one of the best QB’s ever. And if anyone out there is saying that the defense is now hurt or that BB has lost their trust…..I say, And? They had their chance to defend 30 yards. Make Manning turnover on downs. Oh what they couldn’t? What, you’re saying Manning was unstoppable at that point? So go for it then, right?
Comment by Justin — November 17, 2009 @ 8:42 pm
- While I think the right call is to punt the ball and let your re-tooled defence close the game out, if you MUST go for it on fourth and two here is how this situation should have been handled. You run your fourth down play and if you DO NOT make it, you have your defence lie down and let the Colts score a touchdown IMMEDIATELY. This way you have enough time on the clock to march down the field and kick a field goal for the win. This did not happen and we saw the results. Pats loose, and our defence feels like they don’t have the respect of their coach. All in all I think the pats were the better team on the field. The defence held Satin Manning to what? 14 points going into the fourth quarter. They did their job. this lies on BB.
Comment by NANO — November 18, 2009 @ 7:32 am
TO NANO:
WOW, ANOTHER OF HILLMAN’S MISINFORMED SHUT-INS THAT CALLS IN ABOUT 15 TIMES A DAY.
DID YOU WATCH THE GAME? IF YOU ANSWER TO THAT IS YES, DID YOU DO SO WITH YOUR EYES OPEN? ON THE DRIVE PREVIOUS TO THE ONE IN WHICH INDY TOOK THE LEAD, THEY MARCHED DOWN THE FIELD IN A LITTLE OVER A MINUTE. THEY HAD A 31-14 LEAD AND LET IT SLIP AWAY. HOW CAN YOU SAY THEY “DID THEIR JOB”??? BELICHICK DID NOT HAVE THE FAITH IN THE DEFENSE TO PUT THE GAME IN THEIR HANDS,AND WITH GOOD REASON. THE DOOMS DAY SCENARIO THAT THE BEAUTIFULLY MISINFORMED WAS PREDICTING, WHEN THE PATS “BARELY HUNG ON” AGAINST ATLANTA AND BALTIMORE FINALLY CAME TO PASS. THEY EITHER HAVE A YOUNG, INEXPERIENCED DEFENSE, INCAPABLE OF HOLDING LEADS LIKE THE ONE SINDAY NIGHT, OR THEY HAVE A GOOD DEFENSE. YOU CAN’T HAVE IT BOTH WAYS.
Comment by Matt — November 18, 2009 @ 1:50 pm